My Events Center Prediction
l3wis 
Before I get into how I think the vote will go, there was a major announcement today on Ellis’ blog;
Bob Barclay teaches social sciences at USF. He says he will detail five concerns that he has with the $115 million proposal, which goes to a vote on Nov. 8. Barclay’s group will be called The Citizens’ Network Against the Events Center.
Barclay plans to file paperwork with the city tomorrow, registering as a formal campaign committee.
Barclay is holding a press conference on Wednesday at 10 a.m. in Room A of the Main Library in downtown.
It’s about time an opposition group has reared their head, and I am glad to see it is someone who knows what they are talking about. Listen closely. I plan to attend the press conference, I have some questions of my own.
One that has recently came up is the legality of the mayor promoting the Events Center;
Mayor Mike Huether’s presentation Monday advocating for an events center to a group of business leaders might have violated state law, some people who attended the event said.
I will defend the mayor on one aspect of this issue, it is totally legal for an elected official to advocate a ballot issue, HOWEVER, I don’t think it is legal to use public funds to distribute materials ADVOCATING the EC. Someone needs to look into this and give a legal opinion before the vote.
Now to prediction time. Ellis wrote an informative article on Sunday about past elections;
Consider the past three general elections: In 2004, there were almost 60,000 votes, and in 2008 there were more than 70,000. The 2006 general election saw nearly 55,000 votes in Sioux Falls.
Now consider the turnouts of two special elections. The 2005 rec center vote drew fewer than 18,000 voters. The 2007 indoor pool vote generated about 12,500 votes. Both the rec center and pool lost by two-to-one margins.
I think this special election is different. The EC is a topic that has been talked about too death, people are aware. This is also a gigantic expenditure for the city. I predict that there will be at least a 20% turnout. But I also think it will be a tight vote. Polls are weird, and we can talk about the usefulness of them forever, but if you take the two recent polls, and factor in margin of error, you will find that it puts the EC vote in a dead heat, 50/50.
I couldn’t predict this one today either way if my life depended on it. Maybe I will rear my unscientific head on November 7 and let you know what I think then. Right now, I have vodka martinis on my mind.
