Instead of wrapping my head around all the races and amendments I decided to only predict the races I have watched closely. Some of the races I did not cover are ones that I think will either be total blowouts or too close to call. Yes, I am getting lazy. Oh well. Here is a light hearted review of the ballot measures by the SE Podcast.
President
Hillary will win nationally. I predicted her win two years ago and I am sticking by it. I think Clinton has silent support. In other words, I think many people are frustrated with their choices, so they are picking the lesser of the two evils. While they are not happy with Clinton as a candidate, they know the alternative is not an option. If I am completely wrong on that prediction, and Trump wins, I think it will be by a large margin. I think Trump will win the state but Clinton will win Minnehaha County with most of those votes coming from Sioux Falls.
Minnehaha County Treasurer
Pam Nelson will win by at least 5 points. Pam’s incumbency and popularity will carry her through the night.
District 25 State Senate
Jeff Barth will win the Senate Race in District 25. Jeff has been a very popular county commissioner (serving 10 years) and though he is running against an incumbent (not technically, she was appointed by the governor). I think Jeff’s name recognition and support across party lines carries him through.
District 9Â State House
Michael Saba will win this easily. Not only is he a strong candidate, his life’s experience have given Saba a wealth of knowledge that NO legislator current or soon to be elected has.
District 10 State Senate
Jim Powers will win this seat, but I think it will be close. Jim has been door knocking and campaigning like a maniac. His competitor is an unemployed closet Neo-Con Republican that moves more then a grazing buffalo, nobody really knows where she lives, and her recent marriage to an out-of-state resident has people questioning if she will resign after the 2017 session so the governor can appoint a replacement.
District 6 State House
Clara Hart has this one. Her competitor also has a residency problem and has been lying to voters about his support of education funding and his votes in last year’s session. He’s toast. Which will be good, he can concentrate more on his Bible studies.
Minnehaha County Commission (2 Seats)
Jean Bender & Marc Feinstein will win the day. I think voters will be looking for a balance on the commission, and I believe these are the two leading candidates in their parties. As I tell everybody, anybody but Karsky (Democrat Juan Bonilla is also running).
Amendment T – Pass
People are frustrated with gerrymandering by the leading party.
Amendment V – Pass
While I think this one will be close, I think people are frustrated with the two major parties and their limited choices on the ballot after the primaries.
21 – Pass, U – Fail (payday lending rates)
I think the church influence on this issue will turn the tables.
R – Pass
The widespread support for this measure will be a for sure pass. Though I do think people opposed to the measure are upset with the growth of government. Instead of creating a whole new body to govern technical schools they would have preferred that they just put the tech schools under the umbrella of the Board of Regents with colleges.
20, Youth Minimum Wage – Fail
I think people are upset with the legislature messing with the will of the people. A standard minimum wage was passed for ALL not just those over 18.
We will see where the cards fall.