2020 Election Predictions
l3wis I’m not going to do endorsements since most of you have already made up your minds, but I will go over a few predictions;
In the presidential election, I have no doubt that Trump will win South Dakota and get our 3 electoral votes (even if one of the electors is hiding under a rock while there is an ongoing(?) investigation). But I do believe Biden will take Minnehaha County with at least 52% of the vote. It’s unfortunate that all the hayseeds in our state don’t wise up.
I also think Biden will take the popular vote nationwide, I actually think he will get at least 10-20 million more votes then Trump. The sticky part is the swing states and the electoral college. It looks as though Biden still has a route to electoral victory even if he loses Florida and Texas. I agree with Biden on this one, he needs to fight to the end and hope it rings true. No matter who wins the Presidential election it is time for us to rid ourselves of the electoral college. This will be a hard fight, because the red rural states, like ourselves, will fight it.
I also think the Dems will keep the House and flip the Senate, with at least 2 extra seats.
Locally, I think Kelly Sullivan (D13) and Michael Sabe (D9) will be re-elected to serve in the state legislature.
While the SD GOP has been like attack dogs on Pat Starr with false allegations and flat out ridiculous lies, I think most people support him for Minnehaha County Treasurer. It will be close, and the only reason is because of straight ticket Republican voters. But I think he will pull it off with at least 52% of the vote or higher. I also wonder why his opponent has gotten virtually ZERO endorsements from the party she belongs to? The unfortunate part is we will miss him on the Sioux Falls City Council, and I can’t even fathom what person will be recruited to be appointed to serve out his remaining 3 years. I wouldn’t doubt that the RS6 already have some people lined up in case Pat leaves. It’s going to be a very lonely place for Councilor Brekke. But on the bright side, I think Pat will continue the same level of ‘personal’ customer service Nelson has provided, but make it even better with more advances in technology. I think if there is ever a perfect replacement for Pam it is Pat.
I have no doubt that Medical Mary will pass with at least 65% of the vote or higher, I also have NO doubt the State Legislature will gut the initiative just like they did with IM22 and make it almost impossible for you to get a prescription for MJ and even if you do, good luck finding a provider for your script. So why would the Legislature do this, well, because they are a bunch little whiny bi*chs that only are for things if it makes them money, it has little to do with them being a bunch of right wing radical wing nuts. Just look at the crying game they played when their personal businesses couldn’t get their hands on the Rona money. Do you really think a beer distributor was suffering during this pandemic? Puhhhhlleeese. That money should have been distributed to individuals across the state instead of low wage employers who may or may not trickle it down to the rest of us. But you know the line from these peeps, they used it frequently in 2008 when raises were not forthcoming, “You should just consider yourself lucky you have a job.†While they take massive tax write-offs for a temporary loss in profit. Sorry, kind of went down a rabbit hole on that one, but like I said, our Republican controlled legislature won’t do anything unless they can line their pockets, and there is NO money in Medical Mary.
As for Recreational Mary, I think it will squeak out a victory, but it will be tight and we may not know the results for several days. My only confidence that this will pass is from what I am seeing in polling. The polling has stayed consistent at that 51% since this summer. I also find some confidence in the fact that only 44% are against with 5% undecided. I think this campaign was well-organized and well-funded compared to the past, and I also think the green wave across the country is changing people’s minds about legalization. Also, if you are 21 or older, you may not have to worry about IM26 getting gutted, because you can go and buy the good stuff without a script. Yes folks, believe it or not, pot makes you feel good, whether you are suffering from pain, terminal cancer, seizures or you just want to relax, and believe it or not, while addiction can be an issue with it, the side affects of casual use are far, far, far less than legal drugs like alcohol and opiates.
I do think the legislature will do everything in their power to regulate the sh*t out of the legalization since they can’t kill it because it is a Constitutional Amendment, but I think the biggest uphill battle will be cities having the ability to regulate zoning, and your only choice may be growing your own plants. I think this is foolish for a number of reasons, first the obvious, WHY IN THE HELL DID BRENDAN JOHNSON GIVE CITIES SO MUCH POWER?!! When I read this in the Amendment, I just shook my head, this is what happens when you have moderate to right Democrats write laws, a milky, watery substance is produced, secondly, cities would be wise to embrace this revenue, because I can guarantee if NO dispensaries exist in our state people will continue to purchase on the black market or simply buy in Colorado. In other words we would lose out on the tax revenue. Even if that all occurs, fortunately we will benefit from the justice costs involved with it, I think counties across the state will save millions by not arresting, prosecuting and jailing MJ users. As for the myth that traffic fatalities will go up, this has been proved in other states that is only a myth. And why? Because legalization is NOT going to automatically create a bunch of new users who will be driving. I actually find this argument the most egregious, South Dakota has some of the most lax DUI laws in the nation. If we are soooooo concerned about intoxicated drivers in our state, maybe we need to make those laws tougher? I know people who have gotten between 3-7 DUI’s and never spent a day in state prison. Why is that? Because of the alcohol lobby in our state, which controls our state legislature. If the Chamber, and the State Medical Association is so concerned about this, maybe they should focus on making those laws stricter . . . oh, that’s right, they haven’t done a damn thing! Kettle, meet black.
By the end of next week, I think our country and state will be turned upside down by this election and I think it will be weeks before we learn who will win in a lot of these races. Remember, the Electoral College doesn’t need to ratify the votes until December 8th, so put your big kid pants on, cuz it’s going to get hairy over the next month.