This lastest Poll makes you wonder where we are at?
Sioux Falls Voters Split on the Proposed Events Center, with One in Seven Undecided
A Sioux Falls Survey by Nielson Brothers Polling (NBP) shows 42% of likely Sioux Falls voters favor the construction of the new events center, while 41% oppose it. 17% remain undecided. The tight race and remaining undecideds suggest that the final week of campaigning and get-out-the-vote efforts may decide the outcome.
The proposed center is favored by marginally more men than women, but 22% of women are undecided versus 12% of men. Age and income have a larger impact on voters’ opinions with regard to the events center. Voters under 30 years of age show strongest support (51% voting “yesâ€). Support drops to 38% among respondents aged 30 to 45, then rises to 46% among those aged 46 to 64. The proposal draws least support (35% voting “yesâ€) among voters 65 years and older. Households with incomes $50,000 or above show significantly more support (48% voting “yesâ€) than those below $50,000 (34% voting “yesâ€).
“Votes for and against the proposed events center are in a statistical dead heat.†says Paul Nielson, a partner in NBP. “The number of undecideds indicates room for movement and persuasion heading into the final days before the decision.â€
NBP also asked voters which site they originally preferred. 23% said downtown, 38% said the arena, and 10% said another site altogether. 20% said they opposed any site. Among those who originally favored the downtown site, 51% say they will vote “yes,†and 38% will vote “noâ€. Of those who originally supported the arena site, 60% say they will vote “yes,†but 24% remain uncommitted. Among voters who originally favored another site altogether, 39% say they will vote “yes,†and 45% will vote “no.†Among those who originally opposed any site, 95% say they will vote against the proposal.
Nielson Brothers Polling contacted a random sample of likely Sioux Falls municipal voters, between October 26 and 27, 2011. The question on the proposed events center drew 526 responses with a margin of error of 4.27% at a 95% confidence level. NBP plans to release more findings from their Sioux Falls survey including questions on Grand Falls Casino attendance, the direction of Sioux Falls, and mayoral job approval ratings. Nielson Brothers Polling plans to continue to research and publish local opinions as a civic resource. For more information, contact nbpolling@gmail.com, or call 605 496-0911.
Went and voted NO today. I sure hope this thing goes down in flames. My prediction; 53% yes 47% no.
17% undecided? Find that hard to believe, but possible I guess. You can pretty much count this entire 17% with the 2 out of 3 registered voters who won’t show up cuz they’re down in Omaha spending thousands on Advil, concerts, and shopping. Thank you Nebraska!!! (God I love that radio spot. Done more harm than good for BIN.
That two out of three that won’t show up? The key to which way this thing swings. My gut tells me, based on past elections, the will of those over the age of 50 will have their way.
From the poll.
Voters under 30 years of age show strongest support (51% voting “yesâ€). Support drops to 38% among respondents aged 30 to 45, then rises to 46% among those aged 46 to 64. The proposal draws least support (35% voting “yesâ€) among voters 65 years and older. Households with incomes $50,000 or above show significantly more support (48% voting “yesâ€) than those below $50,000 (34% voting “yesâ€).
Sounds like the 48% of those over 50,000 vs the 34% under 50,000 makes the yes people dancing in the streets. But first ask yourself this. Out of every ten households in Sioux Falls, how many are over $50,000 a year incomes?
That fucking Ellerbroek commercial drives me nuts. You’re not a progressive community without an event center? Um, we do have one. The issue is whether we want a bigger, newer one. And the way she throws out that $40 million figure. Does it mean $40 million more than the existing Arena? Of course not.
Scott, don’t you want a better future for Treven and Holden (taken from a PC I got yesterday in the mail)
I think Poly43 emboldened the key point. Voters over 65 showed least support. Who typically shows up to the polls reliably? If this is true, its going to take a pretty heavy turnout I would think of the less traditional younger voter to overcome that. But the event center is a different animal. Like the 2008 Obama election this might bring out people who usually don’t bother. That being said purely anectodal evidence the last several weeks has me more expecting a sound defeat rather than the nail biter I expected previously. One other part I’d point out – ‘then rises to 46% among those aged 46 to 64’. I’m not terribly surprised by this, because that age range would be the baby boomers, who never met a debt they didn’t like. Just saying. Final point, I too am getting sick of the ad hominem attacks that if you aren’t for this plan you aren’t ‘progressive’ or don’t want to move the city forward. Personal attacks, the last bastion of the desperate.
I listened to the Public Radio debate today, Bob did a good job, Huether had trouble answering questions so he started asking Bob questions. It was the first time I have seen him in a corner. I sent a question about ‘signed commitments’ and he avoided it, so I emailed the DJ and told him, ‘make sure he answers the question’ and he re-asked it. Huether did admit there was no commitments ‘yet’.
I have been leaning it will pass by 52% but I still can’t get over the fact that VOCAL public sentiment is in the toilet on this topic. I will make another prediction on Monday.
When Huether was in the runoff against Kermit I made the assumption voters were aware of mikes previous work history. I mean, marketing director for a fee harvesting credit card scam? Surely the typical voter would see through that? Right? Wrong.
This is what I fear the most today. People voting who have no clue. Like some of these.
http://www.ksfy.com/story/15938600/what-do-sioux-falls-citizens-know-about-the-events-center
Poly,
Your words are so true. That post above is worthy of a bronze plaque to be mounted at City Hall.
From the KSFY reporter – “The Event Center would be built with no added cost to the city”?!?!? So, it’s free?
Even the people asking these questions don’t know the correct answers! This is beyond pathetic!
Corn – I saw that too. Didn’t you know when you take out a loan at the bank, you don’t have to pay it back.
I would like to know where BIN is getting all their money for their TV ad. It would be nicer to see a different one occasionally. Ellerbroek is getting annoying. Is Huether supposed to be paid for running around supporting his pet project? I also feel that if the supporters from other towns think the event center will be so great, why don’t they build it in their towns?
I got that third card in the mail from BIN. A quote calls this an investment. I didn’t know a investment could be made through debt.. Or Debt on a debt.
I too received the BIN card (third) and it IRRITATES me to no end to receive that crap in the mail. It confirms to me to vote no. I get tired of things like this SHOVED DOWN MY THROAT so that I will just roller over and vote yes. Let’s not forget the 10 (or so) signs on lawns all in a row…it makes one wonder if they (the people that put the signs up) don’t think we’ll get the message with one sign so 10 is better? IRKED!!
There’s also the “nearly $40 million in NEW spending” soundbyte that BIN is tossing around. Nowhere in the AECOM report can you find or calculate that number.
They do state $44 million in “Total Economic Impact” in Table 1, $43 million in “Total Gross Spending” in Table 6 and $29 million in “Net Direct Economic Impact in Table 7, but all of that analysis also takes into account the $19 million in current Economic Impact we get from the Arena and Convention Center as stated by Mike Cooper in one of the EC updates this summer.
Fuzzy math alive and well at Build It Now.
I take all that ‘economic impact’ crap with a grain of salt.
They clearly pulled those numbers out of their ass. If I am to believe that the current economic impact of the Arena is $19 million, then a new building is going to double that? Let’s be real here. Neither attendance nor number of events are going to combine to create that great of a leap. Those that do believe it deserve the loss of services or the tax increase that will eventually be passed by FUTURE councils.
I had to smile when I saw on KELO News that the opposition has $5.24 left in their account for the rest of the campaign………..
and BIN amassed over a quarter of a million dollars and has $30,000 left to spend!!
It’s refreshing to see that sometimes it’s NOT all about the money…..
After following this issue for the past six years, my prediction is…………..
this goes DOWN TO DEFEAT on Tuesday………!!!!