In Politics: Nationally: According to most of the polls, the Presidential race is too close for comfort. According to the New York Times’ latest poll, the Presidential race has become a “dead heat” as Trump has pulled even with Kamala Harris despite the one Billion dollars Harris has spent so far on her campaign. As a Democrat it is very frustrating to see Trump gain momentum despite the scary and outlandish things he says and does. It was pointed out to me today that 40 of the 44 Cabinet members from his previous Administration have refused to endorse him, many publicly expressing their support for Kamala, while his former chief-of-staff , John Kelly, called Trump a Fascist. A strong word and a collective warning to all of us. Yet, Trump continues to gain support. Can anyone explain this to me!
As for myself, I have regressed to nail biting and drink.
In Politics: South Dakota: The South Dakota Democratic Party (SDDP) chose to oppose Amendment H (open primaries), apparently lacking confidence in Democratic Party candidates’ ability to come in second in primary contests between two (or more) Republicans and one Democrat.
Voter registration statistics from the South Dakota Secretary of State reinforce the wisdom of the SDDP’s opposition to Amendment H. Although Democrats have reversed their steady decline in registered voters, adding almost 2000 new registrants since Kamala Harris became their Presidential Nominee, Republicans added over 6600 voters to their rolls at the same time. So, despite progress, the SDDP continues to fall further and further behind the GOP. The SDDP’s lack of confidence in its electoral ability and its own relevance appears well placed.
In percentage terms, 51% of voters have chosen the Republican Party and 23% see themselves as Democrats. Only a minority of South Dakotans are buying what the SDDP is selling and, under its current leadership, it appears to be condemned to wander in the political wilderness for another 40 years.
But that’s the problem with so many people’s analysis of this campaign, it’s not a “dead heat”. The only polls that matter are the ones in the swing states, where they are virtually tied, but when you factor in that Trump historically outperforms his polling numbers by 4 to 6 points, and that pollsters have met about this issue (in 2021), but have never figured how to address this issue, then Trump is comfortably leading in states like PA, WI, MI, and NV, and thus, he will win. This race will be over by 9 pm central time on election night even after factoring in mail-in ballots that have not been counted yet.
The only problem with my analysis, however, is that this Trump polling phenomenon does not seem to happen in Sun Beltbelt states so much, where Trump is also ahead but not by much and in 2020 was leading in states like GA and AZ going into the election, which he then lost. The only way I can explain this is that polling is less authentic in the Rust Belt because of the heavy discontent and cynism which still prevail in that part of our country due to the shockwaves that NAFTA caused and pollsters have not figured out a way to tap into that constituency for effective polling. So, if Harris is going to win this, she’s going to have to carry NC, GA, AZ, and one of the following states of WI, MI, and PA, with NV – the gambling state – being a wild card.
AND, no doubt Trump is a fascist, but the fact that a nominee of a major political party has to call their prime opponent a fascist, and just days before the election, shows you just how desperate the Harris camp is. Her surrogates should be calling Trump a fascist and not her. I am afraid we are at that point in the campaign where Harris is beginning to throw everything at the wall in hopes that something sticks.
How did we get here? Well, we should have never replaced Biden. What happened to Joe on June 28th was classic Joe, but Joe historically has been, or was, a cat with nine lives, but the Democratic elite, I’m afraid, had him for lunch before the illegals could ever get to him.
( and Woodstock adds: “Say, I know that, Scott, loves Tiny Desk Concerts …. So, here’s a new one that’s pretty good… 😉 ( ….. “Man, I sure wish I could find that old footage of the time when Tiny Tim did a Tiny Desk Concert…. 🙁 ….. ) ……:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y38qQRg3UDI
“AND, then again, there’s also this Tiny Desk Concert, too”….. 🙂 ……:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4neLJQC1_E
I might add to my analysis that the phrase “was leading in states like GA and AZ” should be “was ‘barely’ leading…” and the phrase “which he then lost” should be “which he then ‘barely’ lost”….