By l3wis

17 thoughts on “NEW Polling Map Released”
  1. I’ve been tracking the Electoral College vote every Tuesday morning since August 27th. For the first time since September 3rd, I have Harris narrowly defeating Trump 270 to 268 in the EC. To come up with these EC numbers, I have been only looking at the three most recent polls for the seven swing states:

    8/27 Trump 276 Harris 251, Arizona tied (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump)
    9/03 Harris 292 Trump 246, (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump)
    9/10 Trump 265 Harris 263, Wisconsin tied (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump)
    9/17 Trump 262 Harris 261, Michigan tied (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=NCAZGA H=NVWIPA
    9/24 Trump 281 Harris 257 (Omaha to Harris) T=GAPANCAZ H=NVWIMI
    10/01 Trump 265 Harris 242 GA tied and MI tied (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=NCPAAZ H=WINV
    10/08 Trump 306 Harris 232 (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=GANCPAAZWIMI H=NV
    10/15 Trump 286 Harris 226 (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=MIPAAZNCNV H=0 Tied=WIGA
    10/22 Trump 296 Harris 242 (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=MIPAWIAZGANV H=NC
    10/29 Trump 297 Harris 241 (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) T=GANCPAWIAZNV H=MI
    11/01 Harris 270 Trump 268 (Omaha to Harris, ME2 to Trump) H=PAMIWI T=GANCAZNV
    11/05 ? – Final analysis

    As I mentioned in a post on this blog back in August, Biden’s exit from the race took the dominant Reagan1984 presidential model off the floor in this presidential campaign cycle, and thus, made two inferior ones to Reagan1984 the now dominant presidential models of this election cycle, and they are Cleveland1892 and Nixon1968. AND, I can say this because Cleveland always won the popular vote, while Trump never has, and prior to Biden leaving the race, the 1968 model was not even a comparable option.

    Before Biden left the race, Biden was Reagan1984-lite. No, Biden was never going to carry 49 states like Reagan did in 1984, but the parallels between their lives and presidencies – although different political philosophies – are uncanny. They were both known to the American public for decades before becoming president. They both ran for president three times before getting the nomination and winning. They both defeated incumbent presidents (Carter and Trump). In the last 48 years, they are the only two presidents who did not graduate from one of our military Academies or from an Ivy League school. They were both married two times. They were both noted lifeguards as young men. They were both known for their gaffes. They both ended an inflationary period in American history with higher interest rates and they both had tax policies that changed the trajectory of our tax policies in this country even though their tax policy philosophies were totally different. They were both militarily aggressive, with Reagan in Granada, El Salvador, shelling Lebanon with the Battleship New Jersey, and directly at odds with the Soviets(Russians), while Biden has militarily been at odds with Russia(Ukraine), China, and definitely in the Middle East in terms of Gaza, Iran, and against the Houthi. Trump often claims that there were no wars during his term – although “His Generals” reportedly had to talk him out of unilaterally attacking
    Iran – while not a single military man was killed under Carter’s watch until three years into his presidency when a Marine was killed at the US Embassy in Kabul, during the initial Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and then the later losses when the American helicopters crashed in the Iranian desert during an ill-fated attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran. Oh, and this helicopter crash happened exactly 40 years before Trump tried to get us all to drink bleach to ward off COVID: a helicopter crash and bad advice that pretty much sank both the presidential hopes of Carter in ’80 and Trump in ’20. So, yes, there are definite parallels between Reagan and Biden and 1980 to 1984 and 2020 to 2024. In fact, Reagan had a bad debate performance against Mondale in ’84, but Reagan’s handlers “…let Reagan be Reagan….” and he bounced back, while Biden, a politcal cat with nine lives was pushed to the side, and in so doing, the 1984 presidential model was pushed aside and now we are given Cleveland1892 and Nixon1968, which both favor Trump.

    Let’s talk Cleveland. Cleveland was 27 years older than his wife. Cleveland was from New York. Cleveland was a draft dodger during the Civil War. Cleveland was nominated by his political party (Democratic) for the presidency three consecutive times. Cleveland won the presidency in 1884, lost it in 1888, then reclaimed it in 1892. Cleveland lost the presidency in 1888 to Benjamin (Harris)on, but then beat (Harris)on in 1892 to reclaim the presidency as the only nonconsecutive two-term president in American history. Oh, and in 1884, when Cleveland won the first time, well, he defeated Blaine, who had been Secretary of State under the prior administration (What was Hillary’s job again, just prior to 2016?). So, does any of this sound familiar?

    Now, let’s talk Nixon and 1968. Let’s see, Nixon had run for president before 1968, too. In ’68, Nixon ran against the sitting vice-President Humphrey after LBJ pulled out. There was a RFK that ran for president in ’68. There were major political assassinations in 1968. We didn’t have Ukraine or Gaza, but we did have Vietnam in ’68, which led to division in this country. Nixon beat Humphrey in a close popular vote, but a vote where Nixon won comfortably in the EC, and towards the end the Harris (There’s that name again, but no relation.) pollster had Humphrey winning in the finals days as Gallup had always favored Nixon handily, while Harris always showed it as a closer race*. Now, does any of this sound familar, too? Oh, and what about the whole somewhat parallels between Humphrey and Walz, like Minnesota and I think Walz often channels Humphrey in personality and talk…. And also, Walz correctly defined Trump/Vance as “Weird”, and do you remember this political ad from 1968?…:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zHyH6PHFzc

    So, where are we? Well, I have always felt that Trump was going to beat Harris regardless of given polls from time to time because history is screaming at us. We should have never got rid of Biden. History gives you options. You need to recognzie those options. You can’t just try to manipulate current events without knowing your history, which is what the Democratic elite did when they pushed Biden aside and put Harris in position to run for president. You can manipulate history going forward if you know your past history, else, you will be forced to repeat history, but most likely not in a favorable way.

    Now, my analysis of the EC does have Harris ahead right now, but Harris (and Gallup, in the end, had Humphrey narrowing the gap) had Humphrey ahead in 1968 as well. So, I still say it’s Trump’s to lose. Because historically polls have shown that they do not know how to truly poll Trump supporters. Trump always out performs the polls, and especially in the Rust Belt.

    Now, I will admit that Trump enthusiasm has waned. For instance, locally, do you remember how caravans of big trucks would meet in Sioux Falls (2016 and 2020) with their Trump flags and then drive through Sioux Falls together? But I haven’t seen any of that this year. The guy who sold flags and t-shirts at the former SuperAmerica/Speedy gas station across from OG never had any customers (It’s near my house), except I once saw one car there, and three big trucks were there the day after Trump was shot in Butler, PA. And then the guy who sold Trump stuff in front of the Louise Walmart kept moving his stand and eventually to the intersection of 41st and Louise and was even towards the end selling “Fxck Trudeau” flags (I guess Trump stuff wasn’t selling good enough 🙂 ) So, if Harris is going to win this, she’s going to win this due to enthusiasm for Trump being down, while female voters for Harris is way up, most likely (But how does the early, early vote impact all of this? 🙁 ). Now, some polls suggest this because CNN is now touting polls that show Harris and Trump in a dead heat in GA and NC, but yet Harris lags Biden’s 2020 numbers with black voters and non-college educated white male voters in those two states, so how is this race in those two states still neck and neck unless there’s a hidden female surge for Harris. Possibly….. AND, I have to admit I have been watching some FOX this election season just to see what the Right is up to, and you can tell in the closing days they are worried about that phenonomen where wives lie to their Trump husbands about who they are voting for…. We can only hope…. For what it’s worth, I sold shoes for many years, and you don’t know how many times female customers would buy shoes from me and then tell me they were going to have to hide the new shoes from their husbands for a while 🙂

    And there are other indicators that Harris is doing better in the close of this race. A Kansas poll came out this week that has Trump only winning Kansas by five points. Kansas?….. ‘What’s Up With Kansas’? There are also reports that Harris is doing better than Biden2020 in Scranton, PA, which is Joe’s hometown. While in Omaha (Nebraska2), Harris isn’t just winning it, but by 12 points according to the most recent poll (Although, it is the hometown of Jerry Ford and Malcolm X, (What?)) So, I think there is a definite surge towards Harris. which I will attribute to female voters, but is it enough?…. Because if I was a betting man, I would still call it for Trump….. Well, heck, history screams Trump. 🙁

    *
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_1968_United_States_presidential_election

    ( and Woodstock adds: “Man, I can’t handle all of this suspense…. That’s why I have so many Dua Lipa posters hanging in my little humble nest right now so I can just stare at them, dream, and tune out…. 🙁 “…. )

    https://printerval.com/dua-lipa-poster-training-season-poster-levitating-p203859762?spid=3410747228&campaign_id=698134631&msclkid=03b4106a093f1b97be44774c8a0dc87a&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Printerval.com_US_BingAds_Pmax_All%20products_06%2F08&utm_term=2330071298025425&utm_content=US%20All%20Products

  2. What about the fact that Cleveland didn’t have a daughter/wife, but he did first meet his wife when she was an infant, and he was a middle-aged man… YIKES!!! 🙁 (I guess it was Harrison, Benjamin, who married his niece by marriage …. Oh, and is that anything like that nanny story?)…..

  3. Our Electoral College, which was initially designed to appease the more rural slave states, in order, to have them become a part of a new political union, has an evil genius to it that still controls our overall political landscape as rural states today, which are predominantly white, have a greater disproportionate amount of presidential electors in comparison to larger states that have a far more heterogeneous populous:

    California’s population per elector is: 731,667

    South Dakota’s population per elector is: 309,589

    There was a time in our country when the only people who mattered or were recognized political identities were white men or who were either white male city speculators or white men who were rural land gentry (In fact, during the founding of our country, many jurisdictions only allowed white men who owned land to vote.). Now, some might argue this is still true, but we won’t go there right now, but instead we will suggest that things are better today for most than they were in the 1780s when our current Constitution was enacted. But with that said, it’s fair to say that initially, the Electoral College, like the Connecticut Compromise, was an early form of affirmative action designed to help uplift the rural white land gentry to an equal political footing with the more populous urban areas where most of the white spectaculars existed. But, however, the EC, over time, has become old or bad affirmative action, which now stands in the way of new or good affirmative action, which is meant to empower not only white men of wealth, both rural and urban, but also people of all colors regardless of their wealth and location.

    So, the next time you hear someone bash affirmative action in South Dakota, then remind them that even as a white person they still benefit from a form of it no matter how evil at times it can be.

  4. Reagan and Biden, both proud Irishmen, also both had very strong stock markets during their tenure. Although, Reagan’s eventually crashed (second term) due to the de-regulatory nature of his political leadership….. Biden? Well, if he had been given the opportunity….. Definitely not so much…. 🙂

  5. “And another thing, I think the real reason Trump worked at McDonald’s and now with a garbage hauler is because he’s beginning to check out his options for work release in the near future”…. 🙂 #SayHiToYourNewCellMateTyron

  6. Don’t forget that Reagan and Biden were also the oldest presidents in American history in their time. #MedicareWorks!

  7. “Trump’s going to jail!”….. “He tried on that safety vest just so he could get used to more orange”…..

  8. i hope my wife doesn’t lie to me about who she voted for. if she votes trump instead, that’s grounds for divorce.

  9. Reagan and Biden were also the oldest presidents in American history during their respective presidential tenures.

  10. “VSG and one of his aliases show a redundancy…. Perhaps, it’s time to replace VSG, too”…..

  11. The notion that SD gets better than average representation per person is misleading. The real question is what is the representation rate per citizen? That question is difficult to answer since the Census Bureau has been prohibited from collecting the information. An even more interesting question is what percent of the population has citizenship only in the US and is therefore in the game for the long haul versus the group that has their backup plan citizenship in another country so they can jump ship when their policies come to roost.

    I think one of the US’s more serious problems is that we have devalued citizenship. A large percentage of Silicon Valley residents have all the benefits of citizenship without the costs. You only have to look at the number of 26 year olds who are and who are not registered for conscription to see the problem.

    I believe that only one out of six persons pays income tax. Social programs are much more attractive for those five persons who don’t pay than for the sixth who pays income tax to support the other five.

    A lot of people want to get the benefits of living in the US but far fewer are in it for the long haul.

  12. CM,

    Definitely some “commitment” here! LOLs

    The Census doesn’t ask the citizenship question. So, it’s the actual population that matters. It’s how we have always done it going back to 1790.

    CM, are you suggesting that CA and SD are at parity, in terms of population, absent your concerns?…. I don’t think so.

    As far as the income tax concern, well, aren’t half of the six minors? So, the real question is about the 2 out of 6, which most likely consists of those who receive the Earned Income Credit (EIC), or else wealthy people, like Trump, who pay no taxes thanks to loopholes.

    AND, if they are not “in it for the long haul”, then why waste lots of federal money on deportation?

    Oh, and absent Silicon Valley, are you saying that Cali’s population would be like So. Dak.?….. I don’t think so…

    Quit being that brother-in-law at Thanksgiving time who complains about how he works overtime so everyone else can be on welfare….. Actually, we are all on welfare in South Dakota, because the number one economy in this state, which is Ag, is severely dependent upon free federal dollars and everyone in South Dakota depends upon this either directly or indirectly. Plus, South Dakota gets more in federal Dollars, then it sends out in federal taxation….. GUSOT! (“Get You Some Of That!”)

  13. Just checking the echo chamber to see if you all are ok? You “men” probably need a fresh tampon after Tuesday!

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