2020 Election Predictions

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I’m not going to do endorsements since most of you have already made up your minds, but I will go over a few predictions;

In the presidential election, I have no doubt that Trump will win South Dakota and get our 3 electoral votes (even if one of the electors is hiding under a rock while there is an ongoing(?) investigation). But I do believe Biden will take Minnehaha County with at least 52% of the vote. It’s unfortunate that all the hayseeds in our state don’t wise up.

I also think Biden will take the popular vote nationwide, I actually think he will get at least 10-20 million more votes then Trump. The sticky part is the swing states and the electoral college. It looks as though Biden still has a route to electoral victory even if he loses Florida and Texas. I agree with Biden on this one, he needs to fight to the end and hope it rings true. No matter who wins the Presidential election it is time for us to rid ourselves of the electoral college. This will be a hard fight, because the red rural states, like ourselves, will fight it.

I also think the Dems will keep the House and flip the Senate, with at least 2 extra seats.

Locally, I think Kelly Sullivan (D13) and Michael Sabe (D9) will be re-elected to serve in the state legislature.

While the SD GOP has been like attack dogs on Pat Starr with false allegations and flat out ridiculous lies, I think most people support him for Minnehaha County Treasurer. It will be close, and the only reason is because of straight ticket Republican voters. But I think he will pull it off with at least 52% of the vote or higher. I also wonder why his opponent has gotten virtually ZERO endorsements from the party she belongs to? The unfortunate part is we will miss him on the Sioux Falls City Council, and I can’t even fathom what person will be recruited to be appointed to serve out his remaining 3 years. I wouldn’t doubt that the RS6 already have some people lined up in case Pat leaves. It’s going to be a very lonely place for Councilor Brekke. But on the bright side, I think Pat will continue the same level of ‘personal’ customer service Nelson has provided, but make it even better with more advances in technology. I think if there is ever a perfect replacement for Pam it is Pat.

I have no doubt that Medical Mary will pass with at least 65% of the vote or higher, I also have NO doubt the State Legislature will gut the initiative just like they did with IM22 and make it almost impossible for you to get a prescription for MJ and even if you do, good luck finding a provider for your script. So why would the Legislature do this, well, because they are a bunch little whiny bi*chs that only are for things if it makes them money, it has little to do with them being a bunch of right wing radical wing nuts. Just look at the crying game they played when their personal businesses couldn’t get their hands on the Rona money. Do you really think a beer distributor was suffering during this pandemic? Puhhhhlleeese. That money should have been distributed to individuals across the state instead of low wage employers who may or may not trickle it down to the rest of us. But you know the line from these peeps, they used it frequently in 2008 when raises were not forthcoming, “You should just consider yourself lucky you have a job.” While they take massive tax write-offs for a temporary loss in profit. Sorry, kind of went down a rabbit hole on that one, but like I said, our Republican controlled legislature won’t do anything unless they can line their pockets, and there is NO money in Medical Mary.

As for Recreational Mary, I think it will squeak out a victory, but it will be tight and we may not know the results for several days. My only confidence that this will pass is from what I am seeing in polling. The polling has stayed consistent at that 51% since this summer. I also find some confidence in the fact that only 44% are against with 5% undecided. I think this campaign was well-organized and well-funded compared to the past, and I also think the green wave across the country is changing people’s minds about legalization. Also, if you are 21 or older, you may not have to worry about IM26 getting gutted, because you can go and buy the good stuff without a script. Yes folks, believe it or not, pot makes you feel good, whether you are suffering from pain, terminal cancer, seizures or you just want to relax, and believe it or not, while addiction can be an issue with it, the side affects of casual use are far, far, far less than legal drugs like alcohol and opiates.

I do think the legislature will do everything in their power to regulate the sh*t out of the legalization since they can’t kill it because it is a Constitutional Amendment, but I think the biggest uphill battle will be cities having the ability to regulate zoning, and your only choice may be growing your own plants. I think this is foolish for a number of reasons, first the obvious, WHY IN THE HELL DID BRENDAN JOHNSON GIVE CITIES SO MUCH POWER?!! When I read this in the Amendment, I just shook my head, this is what happens when you have moderate to right Democrats write laws, a milky, watery substance is produced, secondly, cities would be wise to embrace this revenue, because I can guarantee if NO dispensaries exist in our state people will continue to purchase on the black market or simply buy in Colorado. In other words we would lose out on the tax revenue. Even if that all occurs, fortunately we will benefit from the justice costs involved with it, I think counties across the state will save millions by not arresting, prosecuting and jailing MJ users. As for the myth that traffic fatalities will go up, this has been proved in other states that is only a myth. And why? Because legalization is NOT going to automatically create a bunch of new users who will be driving. I actually find this argument the most egregious, South Dakota has some of the most lax DUI laws in the nation. If we are soooooo concerned about intoxicated drivers in our state, maybe we need to make those laws tougher? I know people who have gotten between 3-7 DUI’s and never spent a day in state prison. Why is that? Because of the alcohol lobby in our state, which controls our state legislature. If the Chamber, and the State Medical Association is so concerned about this, maybe they should focus on making those laws stricter . . . oh, that’s right, they haven’t done a damn thing! Kettle, meet black.

By the end of next week, I think our country and state will be turned upside down by this election and I think it will be weeks before we learn who will win in a lot of these races. Remember, the Electoral College doesn’t need to ratify the votes until December 8th, so put your big kid pants on, cuz it’s going to get hairy over the next month.

Posted in: Elections, South Dakotans

I wish more people would participate in local government . . . sigh

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It always amazing me how citizens only show up when there is a crisis and their bottom line is threatened.

I will commend the people who have been showing up to the meetings lately. But where are they when the city is bilking us with higher taxes and fees? Unneeded bonds for play palaces? Massive tax rebates in the form of TIFs to the wealthy developers? Massive violations of open meeting laws and 1st Amendment rights?

Oh that’s right, none of those things matter if it doesn’t affect your personal finances. All of this sudden concern in government overreach remind of this lyric from a Nashville Pussy song,

‘Sit on my ass, smokin’ bad grass, tellin’ everyone I’m King.’

The irony of all these ‘concerned citizens’ is that none of these ordinances, resolutions or other proposals violate your civil liberties because they didn’t have any legal teeth. That is obvious. You don’t have to believe me, do a little research. They were a ‘strong suggestion’ from government. That’s it. Also, as I have said before, in a time of crisis the government should be helping us, especially our employers, in how they can create a safe work environment.

As asked today at the city council informational meeting, what are the city employees doing right now while collecting a paycheck? No real answer. As I mentioned before, some of them are working, and very hard. But a lot of them are not. So why are the rest of us putting on our boots each morning to keep this city going but the city employees are not? They could easily be manning employer hotlines with advice on how to keep a safe work environment. They could be going to these businesses and helping them create a safe work environment. They could be helping with food giveaways, etc. They are not. Why? Instead of trying to ‘strongly suggest’ what we should be doing, here is my suggestion; If you want to collect a paycheck from taxpayers you must earn it. That means you must be working, either at home or in some other capacity. If you don’t want to do that, you should be furloughed without pay and your job will be given back to you when you decide to return. Now I don’t blame these employees, I blame the mayor, who is the city administrator and his main job according to charter is managing city employees. So while he has failed at trying to manage private employers and employees, he has given some city employees an extended vacation. And why would they argue with that? Paul, if you don’t want to dictate to private business what they should do with their employees, why are you giving some of yours time off?

We Love work. That’s all we know.

So why do people in this country, state and city want to fight so hard to go to work in this time? First the obvious, we live paycheck to paycheck, secondly, we know nothing but work. South Dakotans are hard workers, because they have to keep their heads above water. While South Dakotans are good people, with deep faith and giving hearts, we are not real cultured. Why? Because we don’t have the time to become cultured, because we value work more than anything else and it is really sad. Until about 5 years ago, I worked two jobs on an average of 60 hours a week. I lived the hypocrisy I just mentioned. Where did it get me? Well a little more money in the bank, aching feet and bad sleep habits, but in the past 5 years I have had a lot of thought about all the things I have missed out in life because I was working. Other countries also value work, but they also value culture and R & R just as much, and they balance the two. How sad is it the only time we decide to protest government is when it comes to working, but never protest them when they don’t give us more time off to enjoy our families, friends, faith and culture. The Civil War may have freed the slaves, but we are still slaves to the system, and we are willing to risk getting Covid to defend that modern slavery. Wow!

Mayor TenHaken has been passing the gavel a lot these days

I find it a bit ironic, because I have been pushing for years that the chair of the council should run the meetings and the mayor can be a member of the audience and comment when called on. Maybe PTH agrees with me on something? Oh, and can you sigh a little bit more at the regular council meeting tonight? Annoying.

Bravo to Councilor Kiley (and I really mean this, even if he is a rubber stamper) for making a statement about how serious this virus is, by stating facts. FACTS! Thank You Rick!

Posted in: Corinna Robinson, Mayor TenHaken, SF City Council, Sioux Falls

Is it time for the City of Sioux Falls to cut some fat?

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I have noticed something over the last few weeks. Seems the city is running just fine with all the city’s pencil pushers (working?) from home. Why is that? We all know why.

Don’t get me wrong, I have seen the police, fire, landfill, council staff, water, streets, parks and public works employees still hard at it. There was even a pothole crew on my street last week. They have to work to help maintain the city’s infrastructure. Thank You!

But what about all the pencil pushers and mostly the mid management? Not a peep. Yet somehow magically our city is still running just fine.

Even at the city council meeting (I think it was Stehly) asked how we could get the furloughed city employees doing something during this crisis. You could have heard a pin drop.

I have argued for years that the city has too many of ‘these’ people. But it’s hard to layoff civil service employees and mid management. But there is a tool they can use to do it effectively and legally; the budget. If the money doesn’t exist to pay salaries, employees have to be cut. It happens all the time in the private sector.

If the city is facing uncertain tax collection they do have the authority to lay off city employees. If the 1st penny (where salaries come from) is significantly less, the council has the power to cut the operations budget which would force the mayor to cut employees.

The first place I would start is mid management. I think our city has way to many of these folks. We pay our directors 6 figures a year, why can’t they be management? Why do they need all of these in between people? I would also start with non resident employees. I have stated for years, if you don’t contribute to Sioux Falls tax base, why should the residents of this city pay your salary, especially if you are management? We have several directors that don’t live in our city or even in our state. It’s ludicrous.

I think once we cut a majority of unneeded management, we may not have to cut the lower end pencil pushers in the city, but I still think many of them need to go to.

I had a guy a couple of years ago who worked in one of these positions for the city, but told me he quit after a few months. He told me that management told him he was too efficient and over achieving too much and basically making his manager look bad.

While I don’t want to see anyone lose their job, the city may be in some dire straits in the next couple of years, and we may have no choice but to cut jobs and we can do it pretty painlessly. But like I said, I would start at the top and work down. The irony is while saving us millions, we may never even see the difference in service. I have argued for a long time that government should only use our taxes for ‘needs’ and not ‘wants’. They may have no choice but to do that.

Posted in: Employment, Sioux Falls, Unemployment

Sioux Falls ‘Stay at Home’ order will be an interesting City Council discussion and vote

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As Mayor TenHaken said today, the city council will consider the first reading of a stay at home order on Wednesday but will have to wait until next Tuesday to implement it. We get a peek of what it looks like below and HERE (Items 22-34). I have a feeling the discussion on the ordinance Wednesday night (not on the normal Tuesday) will be high drama. At this point I think the council is split on the issue, but I do encourage them to at least pass a 1st reading and if things change or get better by next Tuesday, they can just kill it or scale it back. I don’t think that is the case, I think by next Tuesday we will be in dire straits.

Many businesses are pounding on Councilors and the Mayor (mostly the self-employed) about not doing the order. I have argued with many councilors and business owners “If you can’t survive a 3 week closure of your business, you obviously 1) don’t have a good business model 2) don’t have a backup plan or savings for when these things occur. There has already been a stay home order in place pretty much for people who work in restaurants (wait staff) the elderly (65 and older) most public employees, teachers and students. Oh, and also covid patients that are not hospitalized. I’m not sure how all of these peeps can be forced to stay home, yet others cannot? But they can, as we will see (or not see).

I also remind businesses that there is Federal help available if you seek it. Many businesses I have talked to have taken advantage of the programs while still paying employees. You do have options.

While the stay at home orders are inconvenient, I have to remind people, until there is widespread testing of almost all of us, there is no safe way to work together in large groups. We can talk about possible treatments (the president invests in) expensive Cadillac ventilators (we are paying for, instead of effective cheaper models) and a vaccine that is probably over a year away, but let’s face it. There are only two ways to stop the spread at this point. Stay away from each other and ramp up testing, big time. Public health and safety should be our top priority, not whether the nation can have their BLT’s.

Here is the important part of the ordinance;

Section 1: Stay at Home Mandated

Effective immediately upon publication on April 24, 2020, residents of and visitors to Sioux Falls shall stay at home or a place of residence if possible, except to work in a critical infrastructure sector job or to conduct essential activities, both as defined herein.
A “critical infrastructure sector job” is one listed below or in the attachment to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Memorandum on Identification of Essential Critical Workers During COVID-19 Response, updated March 28, 2020, attached hereto as Exhibit A and incorporated herein by reference. The following are “critical infrastructure sector jobs” for purposes of this Ordinance:
• Construction workers who support the construction, operation, inspection, and maintenance of construction sites and construction projects (including housing construction)
• Workers such as plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, construction material sources, and essential operation of construction sites and construction projects
• Professional services, such as legal or accounting services, insurance services, real estate services (including appraisal, home inspection, and title services), and veterinary services, inclusive of support staff.
• Employees of biotech companies
• Employees of financial institutions such as banks, credit unions, and insurance companies For purposes of this Ordinance, homes or places of residence include apartments, hotels, motels, shared rental units, dormitories, shelters, long-term care facilities, and similar facilities where a person may presently reside.

This of course covers a wide range of workers, in fact, I would argue unless you are making toy trains or whirly gigs, you are pretty much an essential worker – few workers will be affected. Amazingly, at my employer, while over half of us are already working from home, we probably fit in 3-4 different categories above, and ONE for sure.

I also find this ‘tif’ between Paul and his Snow Queen a bit interesting, especially when this juicy tidbit just came out today;

The source — who has been at the highest level of Republican politics — said Noem is making such a mess of things that she if she doesn’t land a job with Trump, she may face a strong primary challenge in 2022.

Among those who might take her on? Sioux Falls Mayor Paul TenHaken, who is frustrated with Noem’s failure to lead during the COVID-19 crisis, when he has asked her to declare a statewide shelter-in-place order.

Another dismal of a failure Sioux Falls Mayor looking to be king of the state, while he has to rely on the city council to bail his ass out with a watered down ordinance that doesn’t take affect (April 24th) until half of the town is already infected. Thanks!

Posted in: Corona Virus, Kristi Noem, Mayor TenHaken, SF City Council, Sioux Falls

Municipal Elections likely to be postponed until June primary

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The legislature is leaning towards a bill that will set the municipal elections in June during the scheduled primary election. It also looks that absentee voting would start on March 30th and be available for the next two months.

I look at this a couple of ways, I think it would have been virtually impossible to hold the election in a couple of weeks. I also think that two months of absentee voting is good, and safer. But I also think that many people are not thinking about a city election right now, and hopefully this clears by the end of May so there can be a little concentration on the election and the candidates.

Also, I have been thwarted by several folks over the past few days that the city council doesn’t have the legal authority to change the election date. I believe they do, and I think it is as simple as practicing their right to change city ordinance under the Home Rule Charter. I also look at this as something the courts could weigh in on. How could the city possibly hold a public city election at the height of a dangerous pandemic with NO poll workers? Well, Sherlock they couldn’t, and I think a judge would agree that gives them the legal authority to change ordinance on the fly. Remember, law isn’t what is written on paper, it is what the courts and judges decide, it is all fluid. And if a governmental body is unable to hold an election, that body has the legal right to remedy the situation, and I don’t think there is a judge in the land that would side on endangering the public because the legislature said a city MUST have an election on a certain date come Hell or highwater. Maybe what we are really saying is if the election can’t be held on April 14th, there is no election, and candidates Neitzert, Mickelson and Stehly get to remain in their seats automatically for the next term? I have a feeling the same arguing against me would argue against that scenario also. Funny how that works.

Posted in: Elections, SF City Council, Sioux Falls, State Legislature